Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): Collaborative Water Resources Planning for an Uncertain Future

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Oct 23, 2018
Author: 
Guillermo Mendoza, Ad Jeuken, John H. Matthews, Eugene Stakhiv, John Kucharski, Kristin Gilroy

 

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) is a methodology for water resources planning and management if significant uncertainty exists about future conditions. Longstanding techniques for incorporating “known” climate and hydrologic variability as well as economic, demographic, and financial uncertainty already exist within the guidelines of agencies such as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the World Bank, and the Dutch Environment and Infrastructure Ministry (Rijkswaterstaat).

What has been missing is a coherent and consistent approach for dealing with anticipated but unquantified changes due to “unknown unknowns” such as climate change that impact project planning, socio-economic justification, resource management, and engineering design. Such uncertainties affect the selection of risk-reduction options by decision makers. Consequently, a process that incorporates unknown unknowns in planning for reliable and resilient solutions over the lifespan of a project becomes critical to selecting risk- and cost-effective solutions.

To address this need, CRIDA provides a collaborative process for risk-informed decision making: effectively assessing, managing, and communicating risks to stakeholders and decision makers, including successfully avoided risks and residual risks that cannot be avoided, quantified, or isolated. 

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