Simultaneously managing scale and uncertainty using innovative software design concepts in a tiered, system-of-systems modeling framework
A tiered, system-of-systems modeling framework is required to represent and characterize the interconnections among the many components of socio-environmental systems. However, managing uncertainty and dealing with scale are two major interrelated barriers that must be simultaneously surmounted, because scaling affects uncertainty. In a series of workshops we will: (1) assess current modeling practices in three mature case studies; (2) develop a conceptual system-of-systems modeling framework applicable to all three cases; and (3) quantitatively evaluate implementation of the framework for a selected case study and synthesize conclusions. The workshops will explore promising methods for the treatment of uncertainty and scale within the modeling workflow and framework through tighter integration of model assumptions, analysis, testing, and information propagation among model components.
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