Infectious Diseases

The Amazon is changing rapidly due to human impacts. Deforestation initiated by colonization policies has changed land-type composition, economic activities, and the decisions and behaviors of millions of people who migrated to these frontiers.Economic activities have also altered the habitat of many species, including that of pathogens and their hosts. In particular, several studies have documented the impacts of socio-ecological changes on the population dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Despite the recognition of their importance, mechanisms linking such economic activities to health remain poorly characterized for ecosystems undergoing large-scale deforestation, in particular the emergence, persistence, and decline of infectious diseases. This team of natural and social scientists will investigate these mechanistic linkages between land-use changes, socio-economic conditions, human decision-making, and infectious diseases in frontier regions of the Amazon.

This Pursuit will use data from land-use changes, disease records, and socio-economic surveys to map spatio-temporal patterns of disease transmission onto socio-economic changes underway in the Amazon, and vice-versa. The team will deliver a framework for formulating and parameterizing models of vector-borne diseases in landscapes undergoing rapid transformation. The modeling approach will build upon new economic methods for incorporating human decision-making/behavior in response to social and ecological heterogeneity in the built environment, as well as external forces and incentives. The team will apply this framework to the states of Acre in Brazil and Loreto in Peru to investigate alternative developmental pathways that represent possible win-win situations for health, the environment, and people’s ability to move out of poverty.